The Quarter-Season Point: AL West Race Is Over, But Predictive Data Analytics Says Two AL West Teams Will Make Playoffs

No paid professional will write this because they don't want someone to throw it in their face down the road if everything goes sideways in Houston, but I'm just doing this for fun so let me state the obvious:

The AL West race is over. The Houston Astros have won it. They now have an 81 percent chance of winning the division, according to data analytics wizardry.

Yes, yes, of course a hundred things could go wrong and baseball is a sport known for spectacular collapses. And every blogger, beat writer, radio show host, television talking head and beer-buzzed fan sitting in a sports bar stool from Humble to Galveston knows the Astros need a third ace starter.

Even so. Clearly the Astros are the best in the West, and are now contenders for the best in baseball.

Outside of that, the division gets pretty bleh. Or ugh. Or meh. Pick the unsatisfied sound of your choice.

On the other hand, it hasn't been a total disaster, either. So you know what that means. That means there's a chance.

If you live in Oakland, the Greater Los Angeles area, Seattle or DFW - or root for the clubs that play in those places - it's time for you to expand your horizons and start focusing on the wildcard standings.

To put it all in perspective, the last-place A's are just 3.5 games out of a wildcard spot. And while it is ridiculously early to focus on that, it's at least a source of some optimism, right?

Right.

AL East and Central

The issue here is that the AL East seems very likely to take one wildcard spot. Both the Orioles and the Yankees are playing well, and the Red Sox will climb the standings eventually. Even the Rays could make some noise. And the Blue Jays are 8-2 over the last 10 games.

The AL Central is strange (in a good way) because the Twins remain on top, while everyone expects the Indians to eventually win the division. The fate of the Twins is completely unpredictable. The Tigers, White Sox and Royals, much like the AL West clubs, are hanging in there to varying degrees.

The Probabilities of AL West Teams Making Playoffs

But what about predictive data analytics? Let's take a look at the probabilities from the 538 blog.

Astros: A 91 percent chance to make the playoffs and, as mentioned, an 81 percent chance to win the division.

Mariners: A 28 percent chance of making playoffs, an 8 percent chance of winning division

Rangers: A 26 percent chance of making playoffs, a 6 percent chance of winning division

Angels: A 15 percent chance of making playoffs, a 4 percent chance of winning division

Athletics: A 5 percent chance of making playoffs, a 1 percent chance of winning division.

Right now, based on the 538 probabilities - probabilities based on predictive analytics, mind you, not a certainty but also not a half-witted guess -  the American League playoff teams would be:

AL West Champ: Astros
AL East Champ:Yankees
AL Central Champ: Indians

Wildcard teams: Red Sox and.....the Mariners. 

Those are based on statistics available right now. They change (slightly) daily. But the message remains clear - it ain't over 'til it's over. Something to think about as we enter Week 7.






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